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Speaker: Paul Lee

Hello my name is Paul Lee and I'm the author of the predictions series and what I wanted to do in this podcast is talk about the methodology that we use for predictions and I think it's a very relevant question because there are lots of predictions documents which come out every single year, particularly at the end or the beginning of a year and it's methodology which I think differentiates one set of predictions from another.

We use various different inputs both at the global level and also at the UK level in order to create the predictions. But the underlying approach that we're using is that we're having lots of conversations with a lot of people throughout the year so in terms of the cycle of predictions we never stop researching predictions. We're always listening, always conversing, always putting together hypotheses which we're testing with individuals both internally and also externally.

So, just to talk about what we do internally, what we draw upon is there are 6000 practitioners, partners, directors, senior managers throughout Deloitte worldwide who are an expert source of very detailed input on different elements of predictions ranging from what's happening for example in the TMT sector in Latin America to what's happening in terms of controls within North America. So we get a lot of detailed input from individuals around the world.

In terms of what we get from external parties, one thing that we've got for this year which is different is we've approached the executives from about 50 different companies and asked them what they think is going to be happening in 2009 based upon their own individual expectations, expectations for their company and also their expectations for their industry and we've been able to tap into the CEOs and Chairmen of various of the largest telecoms carriers around the world, the CEOs and head of strategies for some of the largest equipment manufacturers and senior people at some of the world's largest media companies. And that's also been a very useful form for us to identify what may well happen and also to test some of our ideas out with them.

We also undertake a lot of other research throughout the year which is informed predictions and one thing which we do is the Digital Index which is a quarterly review of the level of penetration or adoption of 12 different digital products and services in the UK spanning technology, media and telecoms. And we've also undertaken specific research for example we do research around the television sector based around surveys and also primary research, interviews, which we do as part of our sponsorship for the Media Guardian Edinburgh International TV Festival.

One other input that we get, it's not just around TMT but what underlines TMT in every other sector is a good understanding of the macro economy. And one of our important inputs for this year, probably more important than any other recent set of predictions has been the results from Deloitte's quarterly survey of CFOs. And in the last quarter we had about 100 CFOs from the FTSE350 contribute to this. And they provide very important views on what's happening for example with confidence, liquidity and access to capital. So overall we have a big range of internal and external inputs and we are looking also not just at what's happening within TMT but also in the wider economy.