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Sinners become saints

The world's inconstancy and unpredictability has been demonstrated by the volatility that characterized the global economy in 2008.

That volatility also applies to commonly held public truths. What was considered good, may in future be considered evil and what was once regarded as harmful may be reappraised as benign.

Two technological innovations that had been regarded as evils may be recast, more than ever, in a positive light in 2009.

One is nuclear power, which many countries had aimed to ban in the 1980s91. But in 2009 it is likely to consolidate its position and perception as a required source of power in a growing number of developed countries92. The volatility in the price and supply of oil, gas and coal may be a key reason for the growing supply of nuclear power, whose global generating capacity is forecast to grow by 1.3 percent in 2009 and could double by 203093.

Another technology that had been regarded as evil is genetically modified (GM) food, which remains banned in many countries, including the entire European Union94. However, the global scarcity of water afflicting a growing number of countries has made governments around the world look for ways of maintaining, or even boosting, agricultural yields while dramatically reining back water consumption95.

GM is one way of delivering this96. The need to feed people, coupled with the need to conserve water, is likely to prompt a re-evaluation of GM97. In 2009 a growing number of countries may, on environmental grounds, rescind regulation prohibiting the use of GM98. A growing number of countries are likely to undertake GM trials. Lobby groups that had been opposed to GM may decide the technology is positive for the environment, rather than malign.

Many cities, from Chicago to Auckland, have for years prided themselves on their status as nuclear-free zones99. Throughout most of this decade, food suppliers have trumpeted the lack of GM in their food100. In future, these positions may get turned on their head.

If sinners are likely to be regarded more positively in 2009, conversely some once 'saintly' approaches and products may develop tainted reputations. Free-range farming may be criticized for the amount of land it requires. Glass, once morally sound for the ease with which it can be recycled, may become criticized for its weight relative to plastic when used for containers101.

In 2009 it may even be considered virtuous to create dishes comprising GM ingredients, packaged in plastic, in kitchens powered by nuclear fuel.

Bottom line

Governments should take a lead on investigating, understanding and communicating the various solutions available for addressing the world's key sustainability challenges. Some of the potential conclusions reached may not appear politically expedient in the short term. But an autonomous government's legacy often requires making policies that are initially unpopular.

The balance between the short and long term can be challenging, and it may never be possible to prove what the right approach should be. Nuclear power may help cut carbon emissions in the short term, but may lead to waste-storage challenges that cost billions to address in the future102. GM crops may increase yields and cut water consumption only to have a downstream impact on the balance of whole ecosystems103.

Any company involved in a technology perceived as unpopular needs to be able to take a long-term approach. Deployment of technologies like GM and nuclear have suffered setbacks and will likely continue to, which could derail progress by years. A single scare story could reverse this improved perception.

Companies involved with newly favored technologies should also evaluate the skills base. Countries where nuclear has fallen out of favor may find that indigenous talent has diminished due to lack of activity and skills may thus need to be sourced from other countries104.

Finally, the industry should encourage the public to take a balanced, long-term view. The public should be urged to consider the case for and against, rather than being directed by the emotion of headlines.