Reinventing mobile television
Mobile television seems to have been perennially 'about to take off'. For several years, analysts and commentators have forecast huge imminent growth. So far, their projections have proved to be overly optimistic. Consumers have failed to tune in, but the medium has been given the benefit of the doubt.
However the economic outlook for 2009 may require media companies to take a firm decision on mobile television. Many mobile television initiatives may therefore be shelved.
Mobile television's momentum in 2009 is likely to be dragged down by disappointing performance in 2008. Major sporting events, which can be a catalyst for adoption of new media formats, largely failed to affect mobile television. While two-thirds of the world's population watched the Beijing Olympics on television100, there was scant demand for the event via mobile television101 102.
The creation of mobile-specific content also failed to make an impression, aside from a hit to the bottom line103. Customized content in some cases attracted audiences measured in their hundreds104 in markets where conventional television attracts millions.
Even services in Asia Pacific, which are often cited as mobile television success stories, struggled. In Japan, a mobile television service provider closed down after attracting only 100,000 subscribers since its launch in 2004105; in neighboring South Korea mobile television services suffered mounting losses106, and in Germany, a new mobile television broadcaster closed down before service was initiated107.
During 2009, lower liquidity and a focus on cash generation may make investment in broadcast systems such as DVB-H, and even systems based on existing 3G intrastructure, less likely108. The desire - or in some cases need - of operators to lower handset subsidies may mean a slowdown in adoption of high-end phones capable of supporting mobile television109. Depressed consumer confidence is likely to make the public less likely to buy add-on services to their mobile subscriptions110.
Media companies may want to focus on traditional platforms that offer known returns. Advertisers, who have tended to regard mobile largely as an experimental format, may also rein in advertising for non-core formats111.
In 2009, it is five times more likely that mobile television services will be closed than launched112. Subscriber numbers may fail to reach even the bottom range of analysts' forecasts: mobile television's total global audience may fall short of 30 million113.
Bottom line
Content companies should adopt a wider view of the mobile phone.
While television pictures may one day become ubiquitous on phones, it is unlikely to occur in 2009 or 2010.
In the nearer term however, there are many valuable roles that mobile devices and services could play in the wider television market. Mobile telephony can be used to help consumers control television, as well as enhancing their loyalty to and enjoyment of the medium.
The mobile phone could be used more extensively to enable consumers to program DVRs remotely114. Suggested programs could be sent in the form of messages to phones - and then a single click could be used to record the program.
The mobile phone could also be used as a back channel. It could be used to order and pay for on-demand programming. The phone could also be used to provide customer relationship management (CRM). Broadcasters and content providers could use basic text messaging - available to most people with a mobile phone - to distribute reminders and trailers for upcoming programs, or to alert customers to the imminent arrival of a new series of a favorite show. Mini-trailers could be sent to owners of smart phones.
Mobile could also enable a new approach to the measurement of television viewing. Integrating or adding mobile capability into set-top boxes and televisions would allow information on television viewing to be relayed automatically to measurement bureaus.
The mobile phone may yet still end up as the broadcasters' best friend.
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Consulting
