Following a decade of consumer-led technological change, adoption of new technologies is starting to swing back to enterprise-first adoption. From the 1950s until about ten years ago, early mainframe computers were only useful or affordable for large companies; and touch-tone phones were in offices long before the average home. But in the last ten years there have been several examples where the exact opposite has been true, and the consumer has led the way (e.g. smartphones and tablets).
This year's predictions feature a few examples of technologies (3D printing, drones and IoT) being primarily driven by enterprise. But consumer-led trends still feature strongly with demand for physical books remaining robust, and smartphone upgrades reaching a billion.
Deloitte's Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions presents our view on the major trends from the sector that will emerge or be enhanced and how they will be adopted in 2015.We have pulled out the top 10 predictions that we feel are most pertinent to UK businesses. But they're not designed to be the last word – have your say #tmtpredictions.
Online short-form video (under 20 minutes) should generate ten billion hours of viewing in 2015 – a spectacular achievement for a format that barely existed a decade ago. Deloitte predicts that this year global revenues from short online video clips will generate over £3 billion, which is just over 1% of global TV advertising and subscription revenues.
We predict that the number of non-military drones in use globally is expected to surpass one million for the first time in 2015. Whilst understandably appealing to consumers – who can use them as remote-controlled high-definition photography vehicles and an upgrade to kite flying - the bigger opportunity this year may be for businesses. But where will the opportunity be if not in delivery to our homes?
The number of smartphones bought as upgrades is higher than for any other personal electrical device, with 24% of UK adults planning to upgrade their smartphone this year. We predict that one billion smartphone upgrades will be purchased globally for the first time in 2015, generating almost £200 billion in sales. But why do we upgrade and how can loyalty be nurtured?
Deloitte predicts that in 2015 nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a value of just over £1 billion. 3D printing offers a factory in every home, and suggests a future in which we print to meet all our needs. But in 2015, the tangible 3D revolution is for enterprises and not consumers: enterprise will account for about 90% of the value of all 3D printers; over 95% of all printed objects by volume and 99% by economic value.
In 2015 one billion wireless Internet of Things (IoT) devices will be shipped, contributing to an installed base of about three billion devices. IoT hardware sales will generate about £6.5 billion and associated services will be worth around £45 billion. This year we are predicting that 60% of all wireless IoT devices will be bought for enterprise and industry use, not consumers.
Deloitte predicts that average broadband speed obtained in most markets should increase by between 15% and 25%, however this average obscures significant differences between households. The gulf in obtainable broadband speed across the country has widened over recent years, not just between the 'haves' and the 'have nots', but those with access to the fastest broadband and those on basic speeds.
A decade on from the launch of the eReader, Deloitte predicts that in 2015 printed copies will represent more than 80% of all book sales revenue worldwide, even in markets with high digital device penetration. In the UK, one of the largest book markets, print sales are likely to be just under 80% in value and approximately 75% in revenue terms.
Deloitte predicts that the number of click and collect locations in Europe will reach half a million in 2015, a 20% increase on 2014. With delivery having been the key friction point in e-commerce, many believe click and collect is the solution, offering a wealth of choice in selection and flexibility in collection. But will it really be win-win for retailers and consumers?
Deloitte expects that 2015 will be an inflection point for NFC-enabled in-store payment: it will be the first year in which the prerequisites for mainstream adoption are sufficiently addressed. The multiple components that enable NFC in-store payments have been falling into place over the last few years but what needs to be done to take them mainstream?
Battery life is becoming an increasingly primal anxiety among digital natives as a result of more frequent use of more power-hungry applications on larger devices. Deloitte predicts that although the standard battery technology used in all smartphones will improve marginally in 2015, the gains from new or larger batteries are likely to be balanced out by greater usage.