TMT Predictions 2015

4

3D printing is a revolution: just not the revolution you think

Technology

  • Nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide in 2015
  • Enterprise will account for 95% of all 3D printed objects by volume
  • 3D printers may become increasingly prevalent in schools to equip the future workforce

Deloitte predicts that in 2015 nearly 220,000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a value of just over £1 billion. But we won't end up with a factory in every home, at least not this year.

The real 3D printing revolution is for enterprise, not for consumers. Deloitte estimates that the 3D printer enterprise market will account for just under 90% of the value of all 3D printers; over 95% of all printed objects by volume; and 99% by economic value.

Deloitte also predicts that rapid prototyping and the production of 3D-printed objects that fit into existing manufacturing processes (such as creating a mould, die, cast or tooling that will be used to make final parts) will represent 90% of the 3D objects made by enterprises. Final-part manufacturing, while likely to be the fastest-growing component of 3D printing, will represent less than 10% of 3D objects printed. High-end industrial machines are capable of producing finer details, print faster and can create larger objects.

On the other hand, consumer 3D printers have more challenges. The relative insignificance of the consumer 3D printing market is due to several factors. One is price. Home devices for under £650 have been available for eight years and use limited-performance materials costing about £30 per kilo or more. They are slow (even objects a few centimetres high can take several hours to print). The software tools are not easy to learn and the resulting objects tend to be small and fragile. Furthermore, the less-expensive home devices can be extremely difficult to calibrate, maintain and use.

Where will the biggest impact be?

Although 3D printers are unlikely to be the 'factory in every home', they may become the factory in every school. Learning how to use 3D printers (and the software tools needed to operate them) will be like learning woodworking or metalworking for past generations of students: enormously useful for those who will end up using 3D printers in their jobs, and still a positive learning experience for the rest.

While the impact in the consumer market will be limited, there are several implications in the enterprise space. By lowering the cost and dramatically accelerating the time-to-market for both prototypes and tooling, 3D printing solves particular pain points in some manufacturing chains, and levels the playing field between large manufacturers and the start-up in the garage.

In addition, 3D printing makes the supply chain more flexible and agile. Product life cycles are shortening, which puts a premium on speed to market. Since the initial costs can be lower than those of traditional manufacturing, 3D printing can offer competitive per-unit costs at levels below the scale required by traditional manufacturing.

However, while 3D printing can considerably improve the outcomes and time saved in rapid prototyping, it is unlikely to bring any major costs savings to the R&D process; prototyping is typically only a small fraction of the overall cost.

Contacts

Paul Lee

Head of Global Research, Technology, Media & Telecommunications

Dan McMillan

Director