TMT Predictions 2015

1

Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television

Media

  • Revenues from short video clips worth over £3 billion
  • Online short video clips to generate ten billion hours of viewing a month
  • Every day, 12 billion hours of long-form television will be viewed

Deloitte predicts in 2015 revenues from short online video clips (less than 20 minutes long programmes) will be worth over £3 billion. The most successful video bloggers (vloggers) will generate billions of views. However the total time spent watching short online video clips, will represent less than 3% of all video watched on all screens globally.

Overall revenues from online video will account for about 1% of the over £260 billion advertising and subscription revenues from broadcasters offering traditional or long-form TV content (over 20 minutes in duration).

Online short-form video should generate ten billion hours in aggregate of monthly play-out in 2015 – a spectacular achievement for a format that barely existed a decade ago. However, this is equivalent to only 20 hours' worth of global consumption of long-form video (television programs and movies). Deloitte estimates that in an average month over 360 billion hours of long-form video will be watched, principally on television sets, and mostly live.

Additionally, online short-form content should generate slightly over £3 billion of advertising revenue in 2015. This compares to about £134 billion from long-form advertising on television. We expect short-form subscription services to be in experimental phase in 2015 and to generate trivial revenues; turnover for long-form Pay-TV subscriptions should be approaching £128 billion.

The production values, monetisation, genres, devices and consumption patterns for short-form are also likely to differ markedly from long-form. For example, in 2015 long-form television shows are likely to have budgets of up to several million pounds per hour, and tens of millions of pounds per series. On the other hand, short-form production budgets are typically in the thousands to tens of thousands of pounds per clip.

The two formats are unlikely to encroach on each other's screens. Short-form is consumed mostly on laptops, smartphones and tablets, and is often watched in short bursts, to fill gaps during the day, when waiting for a friend, or to 'graze' or when distracted. By contrast, television is watched predominantly in the evening, typically for several hours per session.

What impact will short-form video have?

Short-form should not be considered as a direct competitor to 'traditional' long-form content, but rather as an additional screen-based medium, addressing needs that were previously un-served or which were catered for by other media, such as magazines, guides to playing video games, or cookery books. Short-form may also be particularly useful at reaching younger age-groups.

Stars are likely to emerge from short-form, but they may well have to diversify to monetise their fame as advertising to increment revenues. For example Zoella, a UK-based video blogger (vlogger), has signed make-up and book deals on the back of her online ubiquity. Zoella's first book holds the UK record for first-week sales, at 78,000. Vloggers looking to increase their revenues should observe product placement regulations carefully; as short-form gets a higher overall profile, it is likely to come under closer scrutiny.

Multi-channel networks, set up to aggregate vloggers, may also need to look to additional revenue streams, such as taking cuts from ancillary deals with brands that are looking to tap into vloggers' reach.

Some advertisers, particularly those focused predominantly at younger age-groups, should use short-form as a principal (but not sole) means of reaching their audience. However they should continually monitor return-on-investment from this channel – the combination of small screens and viewing during snatched free moments may make for distracted viewing.

Contacts

Paul Lee

Head of Global Research, Technology, Media & Telecommunications

Dan Ison

Partner, Deloitte Digital