TMT Predictions 2015

10

Smartphone batteries: better but no breakthrough

Technology

  • Standard battery technology in smartphones to improve marginally this year
  • Any major inflection in battery performance would require the use of different technology, or a new material
  • The gains from new or larger batteries are likely to be balanced out by greater usage

Deloitte predicts that the standard battery technology used in all smartphones will improve only marginally in 2015. Those getting new smartphones this year should enjoy an increase in battery life, but this will mostly be due to other factors, principally efficiency improvements in processors, radio transmitters and screens as well as from better software.

The smartphone has benefited from Moore's Law – the consistent, significant increase in performance at the same price point – with processor and connectivity speeds seeing the biggest increments. Consumers have often yearned for a similar breakthrough for battery. However since the introduction of Lithium-Ion technology they have continually been disappointed.

Indeed, there is unlikely to be anything more than a modest improvement from Li-Ion in 2015 or at any time in the future. At most it may yield just a further 30% performance before hitting a ceiling, with perhaps a 20% improvement by 2017.

So any major inflection in battery performance would require the use of different technology, or a new material, such as graphene. Across all of these possible innovations, we do not foresee any breakthrough battery technologies being in the market in 2015 – or, regrettably, before the end of this decade.

The lack of progress in smartphone battery capacity is not for lack of trying, but simply because it is extremely difficult to identify a battery chemistry that is better and suitable for use in the highly diverse operating environments in which the billions of consumer electronic devices we own are used.

Battery life is becoming an increasingly primal anxiety among digital natives. This anxiety is to an extent self-inflicted; more frequent use of more power-hungry applications on larger devices consumes more power. Our devices would last longer if we used them less, or used them differently. But the rapid progress in smartphone capability looks likely to continue in 2015, which means that the smartphone users will use their phones more frequently, and for a wider range of applications. The gains from new or larger batteries are likely to be balanced out by greater usage.

Out of frustration rise more opportunities

Smartphone vendors may differentiate their devices in terms of processor design, battery capacity and fast-charging capability.

Network operators with high-density networks and/or a large network of public Wi-Fi hotspots may advertise the fact their network can reduce battery consumption, due to lower transmission drain on their customers' batteries.

Component vendors can offer a range of different external power supplies.

Public venues and public transport facilities can differentiate their facilities through the offer of charging units. There are likely to be ever more locations offering opportunities to recharge, from airport lounges, to planes, trains and automobiles.

Contacts

Paul Lee

Head of Global Research, Technology, Media & Telecommunications

Cornelia Calugar-Pop

Lead Researcher, Technology, Media & Telecommunications